The firm offer for warehouse B/L continues to decline, driving an expansion in exports due to reverse arbitrage [SMM Yangshan spot copper]

      June 30, 2025 News: Today, warrant prices ranged from $20 to $40/mt, with a QP of July, and the average price fell by $7/mt compared to the previous trading day. B/L prices ranged from $30 to $70/mt, with a QP of July, and the average price fell by $8/mt compared to the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) prices ranged from -$5 to $7/mt, with a QP of July, and the average price fell by $4/mt compared to the previous trading day. The quotes referenced cargo arriving in early to mid-July.

      The SHFE/LME price ratio remained unchanged from last week, with the backwardation structure of the LME Cash-3M contract still significant. The volume of contracts expiring on July 2 last Friday approached 11,000 lots, far exceeding the spot delivery volume. Smelters and some traders have established reverse arbitrage positions to actively export. It was heard that domestic warrants were quoted at $20-35, with some transactions completed for a QP of July. There were almost no offers for domestic B/Ls arriving in early July. EQ copper arriving in early to mid-July was heard to be quoted at (-$5)-$10, with a QP of July. Overall, the trading of transshipment B/Ls arriving in July has largely concluded, with the market reverting to export logic. The warrant and B/L prices of Yangshan copper premiums continue to decline towards the bottom.